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Global warming is intensifying El Niño weather

    As humans put more and more heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere, the Earth warms. And the warming is causing changes that might surprise us. Not only is the warming causing long-term trends in heat, sea level rise, ice loss, etc.; it’s also making our weather more variable. It’s making otherwise natural cycles of weather more powerful.

    Perhaps the most important natural fluctuation in the Earth’s climate is the El Niño process. El Niño refers to a short-term period of warm ocean surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, basically stretching from South America towards Australia. When an El Niño happens, that region is warmer than usual. If the counterpart La Niña occurs, the region is colder than usual. Often times, neither an El Niño or La Niña is present and the waters are a normal temperature. This would be called a “neutral” state.

    The ocean waters switch back and forth between El Niño and La Niña every few years. Not regularly, like a pendulum, but there is a pattern of oscillation. And regardless of which part of the cycle we are in (El Niño or La Niña), there are consequences for weather around the world. For instance, during an El Niño, we typically see cooler and wetter weather in the southern United States while it is hotter and drier in South America and Australia.

    It’s really important to be able to predict El Niño/La Niña cycles in advance. It’s also important to be able to understand how these cycles will change in a warming planet.

    El Niño cycles have been known for a long time. Their influence around the world has also been known for almost 100 years. Having observed the effects of El Niño for a century, scientists had the perspective to understand something might be changing.

    The relationship between regional climate and the El Niño/La Niña status in climate model simulations of the past and future. It was found an intensification of El Niño/La Niña impacts in a warmer climate, especially for land regions in North America and Australia. Changes between El Niño/La Niña in other areas, like South America, were less clear. The intensification of weather was more prevalent over land regions.

    And this conclusion can be extended to many other situations around the planet. Human pollution is making our Earth’s natural weather switch more strongly from one extreme to another. It’s a weather whiplash that will continue to get worse as we add pollution to the atmosphere.

    Fortunately, every other country on the planet (with the exception of the US leadership) understands that climate change is an important issue and those countries are taking action. It isn’t too late to change our trajectory toward a better future for all of us. But the time is running out. The Earth is giving us a little nudge by showing us, via today’s intense weather, what tomorrow will be like if we don’t take action quickly.

Disponível em: <https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/aug/29/global-warming-is-intensifying-el-nino-weather>. Acesso em: 19 set. 2018. (Adaptado).